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    Assessing the role of climate change in Malaria transmission in Africa.

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    Date
    2016-02-23
    Author
    Ngarakana-Gwasira, Ethel T.
    Bhunu, Claver P.
    Masocha, Mhosisi
    Mashonjowa, Emmanuel
    Type
    Article
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    Abstract
    The sensitivity of vector borne diseases like malaria to climate continues to raise considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease dynamics. The problem of malaria vectors shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is of important concern. A mathematical model incorporating rainfall and temperature is constructed to study the transmission dynamics of malaria. The reproduction number obtained is applied to gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for baseline climate and future climate with aid of GIS. As a result of climate change, malaria burden is likely to increase in the tropics,the highland regions, and East Africa and along the northern limit of falciparum malaria. Falciparum malaria will spread into the African highlands; however it is likely to die out at the southern limit of the disease.
    URI
    https://hdl.handle.net/10646/4027
    Additional Citation Information
    Ngarakana-Gwasira, E. T., Bhunu, C. P., Masocha, M., & Mashonjowa, E. (2016). Assessing the role of climate change in malaria transmission in Africa. Malaria research and treatment, 2016.
    Publisher
    HINDAWI
    Subject
    vector borne diseases
    malaria
    climate change
    Africa
    falciparum malaria
    Geographical Information Systems
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    • Department of Mathematics Staff Publications [14]

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