A Mathematical Model Of Combined Pre-Exposure, Post-Exposure Vaccines And Treatment Of Tuberculosis

Abstract

Due to high prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) in developing countries where HIV prevalence is also high, developing effective TB vaccines that will prevent infection and reactivation of latent infection is a high priority. This is because patients infected with HIV are at increased risk of developing active TB because of the high rate of reactivation of latent infection and high degree of susceptibility to new infection. Three mathematical models with TB vaccines were used to predict the most effective epidemic-control strategy in reducing active TB cases. The first model is with pre-exposure TB vaccines and treatment of TB, the second with post-exposure vaccines and treatment of TB, and the last one with both vaccines and treatment of TB. The comparison of effectiveness was based on the reproduction rates and numerical analysis using the forward fourth order Runge-Kutta scheme. The combined strategy was found to be the most effective as an epidemic-control strategy.